Learning Objectives
5 objectives- Understand the fundamental concepts and significance of demand forecasting in supply chain management.
- Explore and differentiate between qualitative and quantitative demand forecasting methods and techniques.
- Analyze factors influencing demand and assess their impact on forecasting accuracy.
- Apply forecasting accuracy metrics and evaluate forecast errors to improve prediction reliability.
- Examine the role of collaborative approaches, technology, and inventory management in enhancing demand planning.
Content Outline
PreviewUnit 981: Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Planning
1. Introduction to Demand Forecasting
- Importance of demand forecasting in supply chain management
- Benefits of accurate demand forecasting
- Role of forecasting in efficient planning and decision-making
2. Methods of Demand Forecasting
2.1 Qualitative Methods
- Market research techniques
- Expert opinion and Delphi method
- Customer surveys and focus groups
2.2 Quantitative Methods
- Time series analysis overview
- Regression analysis basics
- Overview of causal models
3. Factors Influencing Demand
- Internal factors: pricing, product portfolio, promotions
- External factors:
- Economic conditions (GDP, inflation, unemployment)
- Consumer preferences and behavior changes
- Market trends and innovation
- Seasonality and cyclical demand patterns
- Competitive landscape and market share shifts
4. Forecasting Accuracy and Error Measurement
- Importance of measuring forecasting accuracy
- Key metrics:
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
- Tracking signal
- Forecast bias
- Implications of forecast errors on supply chain performance
5. Demand Forecasting Techniques
5.1 Moving Averages
- Simple moving average calculation and use cases
- Weighted moving averages
5.2 Exponential Smoothing
- Single, double, and triple exponential smoothing
- Trend and seasonality adjustments
5.3 Trend Projection
- Identifying and extrapolating trends
5.4 Causal Models
- Using regression and other statistical models to link demand drivers
6. Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR)
- Concept and objectives of CPFR
- Benefits of collaboration between trading partners
- Steps and process flow in CPFR
- Case examples illustrating CPFR implementation
7. Inventory Management and Demand Forecasting
- Relationship between demand forecasting and inventory control
- Role of safety stock and buffer inventory
- Reorder point calculation and its dependence on forecast accuracy
- Techniques to optimize inventory levels using forecast data
8. Demand Planning and Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) Process
- Overview of S&OP framework
- Integrating demand forecasting within S&OP
- Aligning production, inventory, and demand plans
- Cross-functional collaboration for effective S&OP
9. Technology and Tools for Demand Forecasting
- Introduction to forecasting software solutions
- Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in forecasting
- Automation of forecasting processes
- Enhancing decision-making with predictive analytics
10. Case Studies and Best Practices in Demand Forecasting
- Analysis of real-world industry case studies
- Best practices for effective forecasting and planning
- Lessons learned from successful and unsuccessful implementations
- Strategies for continuous improvement in demand forecasting
Unlock the full outline
Get the complete content outline, learning outcomes and assessment methods for Demand Forecasting And Planning.
KSh 20 one-off, or included with a plan
Learning Outcomes
Unlock the outline above to see learning outcomes.
Assessment Methods
Unlock the outline above to see assessment methods.